Latest news

Jae Naik joins Delta Hat

We are pleased to welcome Jae Naik to the Delta Hat team. Jae is a modeller who has spent the last 5 years at another consultancy, and brings experience working across a range of disease areas. He will continue to focus on leading HTA submissions, adding to our capability and capacity.

Mark Edmondson-Jones joins Delta Hat

We are delighted to welcome Mark Edmondson-Jones to the team at Delta Hat. Mark has extensive experience as a statistician across industry and consulting. He will be continuing this work in applied statistics at Delta Hat, with a particular focus on indirect comparisons.

Publication: Predicting Survival for Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy: A Validation of Survival Models Using Follow-Up Data From ZUMA-1

Jess Mann and Ash Bullement have had an original research article published by Value in Health, concerning the estimation of survival outcomes for patients treated with the CAR T-cell therapy axi-cel. The research considers multiple data cuts from the ZUMA-1 trial, finding that cure-based models were best placed to provide plausible extrapolations based on limited follow-up data. You can read the open access article by following this link URL: https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(21)03181-8/fulltext

New Delta Hat website!

With our new branding, it seemed a good time to migrate our website to Distill for R, which should make things a bit cleaner, and easier to update. If interested in the package, the documentation can be found at https://rstudio.github.io/distill/

Article published in Nature

Our director, Anthony Hatswell, has had a paper published in Nature on putting together a good CV for scientific jobs. Hopefully it is of interest to those currently considering their options, and a chance to share some of our experience in reviewing applications. The article is available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00557-x

Delta Hat teaching ISPOR short course

Zoe Philips, Simone Critchlow and Rachael Slater will be teaching the ISPOR short course on reviewing economic models, on 29 June. For mroe information please see https://www.ispor.org/conferences-education/event/2022/06/29/default-calendar/29-30-june-economic-model-review-quality-control-strategic-assessment-and-reporting-standards-virtual

Propensity scoring in aHUS (publication)

Anthony, Kevin and Emma are coauthors on a paper just published piece of analysis using propensity scoring to investigate comparative effectiveness inatypical hemolytic uremic syndrome. The article is available at: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34931610/

Richard Kay joins Delta Hat

We are pleased to welcome Richard Kay to the Delta Hat team as our Business Manager.

Will Sullivan joins Delta Hat

We are pleased to welcome Will Sullivan to the Delta Hat team. Will joins with a wealth of expeirence in health economics, and further strengthens our expertise in modelling and health technology assessment.

Simulation study regardining analysis methods for quality of life data

Anthony Hatswell & Ash Bullement are coauthors on a recently published simulation study looking at the analysis of utilities as 'time to death'. The work looks at the circumstances under which either progression, or time to death based utilities can be preferred. The article is available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8060240/

Delta Hat are hiring a statistician

Delta Hat are looking for a new member to join the team and learn our field - a position which would be ideal for a graduate. The job description is available below, as well as being listed on our company linkedin page. We look forward to hearing from any interested candidates.

Anthony Hatswell featured on the Academic Health Economist (AHE) blog

Anthony Hatswell is featured today on the Academic Health Economist blog, discussing the main findings and process around his PhD at UCL. You can read the interview in full here: https://aheblog.com/2020/10/15/thesis-thursday-anthony-hatswell/

Presentation: R for HTA 2020

Kevin Deighton presented on the topic of propensity score analysis for multiple datasets at the R for trial and model-based cost-effectiveness workshop 2020. The online workshop was attended by 150+ health economists, statisticians, and researchers across industry, academia, and government; who came together to share best practices, discuss improving standards, and look at how to better expand the capabilities of others. A recording of Kevin’s presentation and the R script used for the analysis are available at the following links: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSYxFhZ1PnU, https://github.com/r-hta/HTA-in-R-workshop-2020/tree/master/Deighton.

Publication: Summarising salient information on historical controls

Anthony Hatswell and co-authors from a range of institutions ahve published a paper suggesting how historical controls can be summarised when used to supplement contemporary trials (for example with single arm trials). The paper also signposts the various analytical methods that can be used to then perform unbiased companions. The full text is available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1740774520944855

Role available - Experienced health economist

As we continue to grow, we are looking for another individual to join our team. Attached is the job advert, and we would encourage anyone interested to get in touch for an informal discussion. A full job description is available on our company LinkedIn.

Publication: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Highly Specialised Technology Appraisal: VN for RPE65-mediated IRD

In collaboration with the Peninsula Technology Assessment Group (PenTAG, University of Exeter), Delta Hat’s Ash Bullement and Anthony Hatswell are co-authors on a recent article published in Pharmacoeconomics. The article summarises the Evidence Review Group’s perspective on a recent Highly Specialised Technology (HST) appraisal conducted by NICE of voretigene neparvovec (a gene therapy for people with a very rare inherited eye disorder). You can read the article by following this link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40273-020-00953-z

A return to road running – Delta Hat sponsors the Podium 5k (complete with national records)

As normality starts to return, Delta Hat are pleased to have been able to sponsor races at the Podium 5k event in Lancashire this weekend. Impressive times were recorded across all races, including the Delta Hat sponsored ‘Sub 15.15’ race, which was won in a staggering 14:23 by Daniel Bebbington from Preston Harriers. Delta Hat also sponsored the final kilometre of the elite women’s race, in which Olympian Beth Potter took victory and went 5th on the UK all-time list with a winning time of 15:24. However, the main news from the event was in the men’s elite race, where Marc Scott triumphed in a new British record of 13:20! Full event results and report are available at: https://www.ukresults.net/2020/podaug.html and https://www.fastrunning.com/running-athletics-news/the-soar-running-weekend-roundup/30554.

Team Lifting Gear / Cycles in Motion update

A return to normal? Bike racing is back! Like everyone we have had our work patterns disrupted by COVID-19, but we're pleased to see some things start to resume. One of these being bike racing and Team Lifting Gear Products / Cycles in Motion, who Delta Hat are pleased to sponsor.

Publication: The Effects of Model Misspecification in Unanchored Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparison: Results of a Simulation Study

Anthony Hatswell has had an article published in Value in Health, on the effects of model misspecification. The article shows where analysts should be wary of using the technique, but also that in the majority of cases it remains both accurate and unbiased. The paper can be read here: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1bDx33vkO-~Ksd

Publication: Evaluation of survival extrapolation in immuno-oncology using multiple pre-planned data cuts: learnings to aid in model selection

Ash Bullement and Anthony Hatswell have had an original research article published in BMC Medical Research Methodology, concerning the use of multiple data cuts from a trial to iteratively fit and compare extrapolations as the data mature. The research found that within the context of an immune-oncology treatment, more flexible parametric modelling approaches tended to yield more realistic extrapolations, and could be reasonably justified based on interim data. You can read the open access article by following this link URL: https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-020-00997-x

Successful year for team B38 Cycles in Motion

2019 was a great year for Team B38, whom Delta Hat are proud to sponsor. As well as their riders collectively winning over 100 (road) races, the highlights would probably be retaining the National Hill Climbing title for the fourth year running, as well as jointly organising two road races and two hill climbing events.

Delta Hat at ISPOR Europe 2019

Anthony, Ash, Emma, Jess and Simone attended ISPOR Europe 2019 - it was great to catch up with so many of you, and enjoy some time in another wonderful European city!

Publication: NICE, in Confidence: An Assessment of Redaction to Obscure Confidential Information in Single Technology Appraisals by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence

In collaboration with YHEC, Delta Hat has co-authored an article on the topic of redacting information in Single Technology Appraisals conducted by NICE. The study found that a definitive incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was presented within final NICE guidance in only 20 of 110 appraisals where a simple patient access scheme was considered; illustrating a lack of consensus regarding presentation of results, and the importance of appropriate redaction in justifying decision making. To read more, please following this link https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31250397

Simone Critchlow joins Delta Hat

We are pleased to welcome Simone Critchlow to the Delta Hat team - we are sure she will be a welcome addition, and provide an alternative view on how we approach our work

Jess Mann joins Delta Hat

We are pleased to welcome Jess Mann to the team at Delta Hat. Jess joins us from her MSc in Medical Statistics from the University of Leicester

Publication: A Review of Recent Decision-Analytic Models Used to Evaluate the Economic Value of Cancer Treatments

In collaboration with Holly Cranmer (Takeda) and Gemma Shields (Centre for Health Economics, University of Manchester), Ash Bullement has had a review article published in Applied Health Economics and Health Policy. The review summarises the key modelling approaches considered in oncology, alongside their advantages and limitations. The review found that partitioned-survival and Markov state-transition models were most commonly used in cancer. In addition, the review found that justification of model structures is often limited, and should be improved upon in future studies. You can read the open access article by following this link https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40258-019-00513-3

Presentation: R in HTA 2019

Delta Hat attended the second R for trial and model-based cost-effectiveness analysis workshop (also known as HTA Ready) at University College London. Anthony Hatswell is a member of the scientific committee who organised the workshop, and Ash Bullement presented on the topic of fitting survival curves using R, including the use of hazard-based plots. The workshop was attended by 80+ health economists, statisticians, and researchers across industry, academia, and government; who came together to share best practices, discuss improving standards, and look at how to better expand the capabilities of others. For more information regarding the workshop, including access to the slides presented, the workshop website can be accessed by following on the following link: http://www.statistica.it/gianluca/teaching/r-hta-workshop/2019/

Publication: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Recombinant Factor VIII Fc-Fusion Protein (rFVIIIFc) for the Treatment of Severe Hemophilia A in Italy Incorporating Real-World Dosing and Joint Health Data

A cost-effectiveness analysis co-authored by Ash Bullement, Samuel McMordie, and Anthony Hatswell in collaboration with Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (publ) and Bioverativ, a Sanofi Company has been published in PharmacoEconomics – Open. This analysis builds upon a previous study by Henry et al. to incorporate data concerning joint health outcomes, as well as real-world dosing data. You can read the open access article by following this link https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31280415

Article: Health Technology Assessment of Curative Interventions—an Old Problem With New Issues

An article co-authored by Ash Bullement and Anthony Hatswell has been published in the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) bimonthly new publication Value & Outcomes Spotlight. The article provides a summary of the key challenges faced when assessing curative interventions, alongside initiatives undertaken and illustrative case studies. You can read the article at https://www.ispor.org/publications/journals/value-outcomes-spotlight

Delta Hat announce sponsorship of cycling team B38 / Cycles in Motion

We believe sport is important - it teaches you what it takes to win, but also how to lose with grace. In keeping with our values of encouraging people to be as good as they can, we’re please to announce that for the next 2 years Delta Hat will be sponsoring the amateur cycle team B38 / Cycles in Motion. The amateur team was founded in 2016 out of a group of university students and quickly established itself as the leading team in cycling hill climbs. Three years and three national titles later, the team has expanded, retaining its place in elite national road race, time trial and hill climb events, whilst simultaneously having a presence both as competitors and organisers of local events. Team B38 / Cycles in Motion plans to broaden its already diverse team in the coming years (with riders already competing in both U10 and veteran category races) and show that a serious cycling team can compete at a national level, contribute to the running of events and be a friendly and approachable face for the sport. Like us they take what they do seriously, without taking themselves too seriously. We wish the team all the best for the coming season, and are proud to be able to support a group that fits so well with our values and ethos.

Ash Bullement at ISPOR International

Ash Bullement will be attending the ISPOR International annual meeting in New Orleans on behalf of Delta Hat. Please get in touch if you’d like to arrange a meeting with Ash. If attending please also look out for his talks on modelling in haemophilia, a review of NICE appraisals approach to capturing health-related quality of life, and the poster he is presenting on a simulation study of utility data.

Anthony Hatswell at NICE conference

Anthony Hatswell will be attending the NICE conference in Manchester on 9 July, if you’d like to arrange to meet for a coffee then please contact us.

Publication: Survival Extrapolation in Cancer Immunotherapy: A Validation-Based Case Study

Ash Bullement has recently had an article published in Value in Health regarding the survival extrapolation techniques for patients treated with cancer immunotherapy. The study considers a suite of candidate survival extrapolation methods that may be suitable, and concludes that those techniques that make use of external data appear to provide more accurate longer-term survival estimates. You can read the article here https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30832965/

Publication: Novel approaches for creating historical controls from existing data

Anthony’s is the lead author on a paper in Statistical Methods in medical Research, which is now online and can be accessed at https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0962280219826609

Publication: Cost-effectiveness of avelumab for metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma

An article authored by Ash Bullement and Anthony Hatswell has been published in Pharmacoeconomics Open regarding the cost-effectiveness of avelumab for the treatment of metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma. The analysis provides a summary of the cost-effectiveness model submitted as part of NICE’s technology appraisal of avelumab, including the use of spline-based survival models and time-to-death based utilities. You can find the open-access article here https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41669-018-0115-y

Publication: Review and validation of survival extrapolation in NICE appraisals of cancer immunotherapies

An article authored by Ash Bullement has been published in the Journal of Medical Economics on the topic of survival extrapolation for patients treated with cancer immunotherapies. The article presents a review of extrapolation methods presented in company submissions to NICE, and assesses the accuracy of these extrapolations compared with later data. You can read the article for free here https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13696998.2018.1547303

Delta Hat at ISPOR Europe 2018

Delta Hat attended the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) annual European conference in Barcelona, Spain. The team presented research covering a range of topics including the appropriateness of Matching Adjusted Indirect Comparison (MAIC) and the accuracy of survival projections for immunotherapies. Below are all Delta Hat’s presentations at this year’s conference:

Emma Knowles joins Delta Hat

We are pleased to welcome Emma Knowles to the Delta Hat team in the position of Analyst. Emma holds a Mathematics degree from the University of Essex, and is currently undertaking a part-time MSc in Medical Statistics at the University of Leicester. Prior to joining Delta Hat, Emma worked within the National Health Service and therefore brings a unique perspective and skill set to our range of statistical and health economic projects.

Article: Still running against the odds: revisiting the London Marathon ballot

While quite different to our usual publication work, Anthony has had an article published in Significance, the magazine of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) on the probability of getting a London Marathon place through the public ballot. The article discusses the increasing popularity of the London Marathon, and the potential reasons for the recent surge in popularity. You can read the article for free online here: https://www.significancemagazine.com/sports/601-still-running-against-the-odds-revisiting-the-london-marathon-ballot

Delta Hat at ISPOR Asia Pacific 2018

Presentation: Delta hat at JSM2018

Anthony Hatswell will be attending the Joint Statistical Meeting (JSM) 2018 on behalf of Delta Hat in Vancouver, British Colombia, Canada from 27 July – 1 August, 2018. As one of the largest statistical events in the world, the research presented at JSM considers the latest work conducted in a variety of topics including Anthony’s presentation: Uncontrolled Studies and Health Technology Appraisal? The Need for Methods, Modeling, and Further Research. If you would like to arrange a meeting with Anthony while at JSM2018, please contact him at ahatswell@deltahat.co.uk.

Publication: Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis in Cost‑Effectiveness Models: Determining Model Convergence in Cohort Models

A tutorial co-authored by Delta Hat’s Anthony Hatswell and Ash Bullement on the topic of undertaking probabilistic sensitivity analysis has now been published in Pharmacoeconomics.

Ash Bullement joins Delta Hat

We are pleased to announce that Ash Bullement has joined Delta Hat as an Analyst. Ash was previously a Senior Health Economist at another consultancy, and completed his MSc in Health Economics and Decision Modelling at the University of Sheffield’s School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR). Ash has extensive prior experience in health economic modelling (particularly in oncology), survival extrapolation and probabilistic analysis methods.

Delta Hat attends ISPOR Europe 2017

Anthony Hatswell will be attending the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) annual European congress on behalf of Delta Hat in Glasgow, Scotland from 4 – 8 November, 2017. If you would like to arrange a meeting with Anthony while at ISPOR, please contact him at ahatswell@deltahat.co.uk.

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